Global Macro
China's Global South Strategy: Consolidation, Not Revolution
China's engagement with the Global South is about consolidating its position in the current international order, not creating a new one.
Latest Macro & Market Insights
Independent analysis of interest rates, inflation, growth, and capital flows.
Monetary Policy
The Fed's Next Move: Why Markets Are Pricing a September Cut
Markets are converging on a rate cut, but the path after September remains contested. We break down the data driving the decision.
Inflation
Global Inflation: The Last Mile Is the Hardest
Headline inflation has cooled, but core services remain sticky. Why the final stretch to 2% targets could take longer than consensus expects.
China
China's Growth Pivot: Stimulus, Exports, and the Debt Overhang
Beijing is shifting from property-led growth to advanced manufacturing. Can exports and stimulus offset a structurally weaker consumer?
Bonds
The Yield Curve Un-Inversion: Recession Signal or False Alarm?
The 2s10s curve has steepened back into positive territory. History says the clock starts now — but this cycle may be different.