Latest Macro & Market Insights

Independent analysis of interest rates, inflation, growth, and capital flows.

Inflation 2026-08-25

Global Inflation: The Last Mile Is the Hardest

Headline inflation has cooled, but core services remain sticky. Why the final stretch to 2% targets could take longer than consensus expects.

China 2026-08-24

Beijing is shifting from property-led growth to advanced manufacturing. Can exports and stimulus offset a structurally weaker consumer?

Bonds 2026-08-22

The 2s10s curve has steepened back into positive territory. History says the clock starts now — but this cycle may be different.

Labor Markets 2026-08-20

Productivity growth is the single most important variable for long-run living standards. Is AI finally delivering, or is it another hype cycle?