China
China's Growth Pivot: Stimulus, Exports, and the Debt Overhang
Beijing is shifting from property-led growth to advanced manufacturing. Can exports and stimulus offset a structurally weaker consumer?
Latest Macro & Market Insights
Independent analysis of interest rates, inflation, growth, and capital flows.
Bonds
The Yield Curve Un-Inversion: Recession Signal or False Alarm?
The 2s10s curve has steepened back into positive territory. History says the clock starts now — but this cycle may be different.
Labor Markets
AI and Productivity: Can Technology Rescue Stagnant Labor Markets?
Productivity growth is the single most important variable for long-run living standards. Is AI finally delivering, or is it another hype cycle?
